When it comes to shipping product cross-country, trucking is king. The US and every developed nation in the world rely on an extensive network of 18-wheelers manned by a brotherhood of truck drivers to bring the goods to market. These tireless workers put in long hours to safely navigate interstates and highways, and are typically paid by the mile. We rely on them to deliver everything from bananas to boat parts, medical devices to automotive components, furniture to flame throwers.
But could that all be changing? With the rise of AI, robotics, and the computer age, driverless trucking has become a very real prospect for the near future. Truck drivers may soon go the way of the dinosaur. It’s conceivable that these self-driving machines might soon be transporting many tons of cargo down the highway with no one behind the wheel.
Skeptics say this prospect sounds terrifying, that machines don’t have the reflexes of human beings, that it will cost too many jobs, that the technology is just too expensive. But proponents are already rolling out the technology. And now the question really becomes more about scaling. It’s no longer a matter of if but when driverless trucking will become a reality.
Whether your company is engaged in local trucking in a given metro area or cross-country long hauls or cross-border trucking between countries, the prospect of self-driving trucks probably piques your interest. And if you believe some of the marketing, you may think it’s already taking over. But that’s not quite what the current picture shows.
Yes, self-driving trucks are already on the road in some places. In early 2022, Kodiak Robotics teamed up with U.S. Xpress to put a self-driving truck on a route between Dallas and Atlanta. The truck drove four round trips, delivering eight loads of freight, and traversing 6,300 miles. And it completed these trips in just five days. A truck driver would have needed at least 10.
But we’re not talking about driverless trucking just yet. Yes, these were self-driving. But they had humans in the seat at the wheel. Currently, the industry is not quite ready to turn these machines loose without “safety drivers” to step in if needed. And records show, this and other test runs have required quite a lot of stepping in and manual overrides.
While the hope is to cut down on delivery times and driver salaries, there are still numerous questions that need to be addressed. For example:
Still, there are a number of companies who believe they can answer these questions if given the time. They are already working to make driverless trucking part of the future. In February, the Consumer Electronics Show (CES 2024) hosted several of these game changers who made their pitch for a future in which we trust 35,000-pound 18-wheelers whizzing down the highway with no one at the wheel.
This showcase of Automated Driving Systems (ADS) included many well-established players like Bosch, Mobileye, and Valeo. But it also showed how powerful and adept emerging industry leaders are becoming.
Gatik was the first company in the world to put driverless trucks on the road in 2021 with WalMart. They now offer autonomous trucking for customers in retail, manufacturing, grocery, and more. Their truck boasts full, built-in redundancy and an enhanced sensing suite. They plan to release “freight-only” services (meaning no driver onboard) by the end of this year.
Aurora Innovation is rapidly becoming a dominant force in the ADS field. They’re now partnering with Continental to allow for massive production at scale by 2027. Their system will include multiple redundancies and backups in the case of sensor or component failure, complete with a secondary computer totally isolated from the primary system should all else fail.
Kodiak Robotics isn’t partnering with an OEM or relying on one to build redundancy systems into the hardware. They’re taking this role on, themselves, with comprehensive fail-safes such as triple break actuators, dual-redundant steering, and two fully isolated electrical systems to power their ACE safety computer.
Daimler has also teamed up with Torc Robotics and plans to launch a fleet in 2027.
With several companies set to launch driverless trucking fleets by the end of this year, there are calls to regulate and restrict this inevitable technology shift. The current federal stance on driverless trucking is that, if it’s not illegal, it’s legal. In other words, in all but the 10 or so states that have restricted it, driverless trucks are legal from a federal standpoint.
Many states are silent on the matter, but other states like Florida and Texas have passed legislation to establish it as legal. But there are a few, like California and New York, that have placed limits like prohibiting vehicles over 10,000 pounds from being driverless.
Currently, driverless vehicles display a profound ability for safety and complex detection and response. In fact, courtesy maneuvers are even built into the software to enable these trucks to “play nice” with other cars on the roads. Yet, there are safety concerns about such large vehicles traveling at high speeds unmanned.
And there is also concern for the loss of jobs that may accompany driverless trucking. Yet others point out that this new technology will also create new jobs. For example, while turnover is around 95% for truck drivers due to burnout from being away from home, etc. driverless vehicles may actually provide a more attractive alternative. Because navigating in cities is so much more complex, we may see truck drivers continue working within cities, picking up cargo from a drop-off site just outside of town. This would allow a more convenient work schedule and home life for drivers.
Additionally, it’s becoming clearer that any job displacement will take years. One study indicated the worst-case scenario would be about a 2% layoff rate over the next five years. And many of these drivers could get new jobs as dispatchers, maintenance technicians, and fuelers.
While driverless trucking isn’t quite here in the truest sense just yet, it does seem to be just around the corner. But that corner will take some time to round, and the future may present just as many pros as cons. There will likely be both jobs lost and jobs created, safety concerns and safety improvements. Regulation may play a role in the speed and scale of adoption, but whatever the route, it seems very likely that self-driving trucks will play a large role in the future of transportation.
