Mexico held a much-anticipated general election this week, and the results are in. While many had been looking for a change in direction, following the tenure of progressive president, López Obrador (“AMLO”), Mexico’s election results showed the ruling party won in an historic landslide.
Image Credit: EneasMx, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
The national election coincides with a big election year for the US, too, and Mexico’s election outcome will impact the US in big ways. Both countries are trading partners and share one of the most contentious borders in the world. The new president in Mexico will have to forge a relationship with the incoming US president, whoever that may be.
Who Is Mexico’s Next President?
Mexico’s general election was held on June 2 of this year. Claudia Sheinbaum will be Mexico’s next President, taking office on October 1, 2024.
This was a unique election in Mexico, as the two main candidates for president were both women. And the winning candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum, is a member of the ruling Morena party, founded by current President López Obrador. Obrador, or AMLO as he is affectionately called, is termed out and could not run for another term.
Serving as Mexico City’s mayor until stepping down in 2023 to run for office, she was groomed for this role by her mentor, López Obrador. When he was mayor of Mexico City in the early 2000s, he appointed Sheinbaum to be the city’s environmental minister. She is a former environmental engineer who jointly won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 for her participation in a project on climate change.
She will be the first woman to serve as Mexico’s President. And she is also the first Jewish person elected to Mexico’s highest office.
She is considered an ideological successor to President AMLO, sharing many of his leftist positions – like considering health care, education, shelter, and jobs to be basic human rights. However, while AMLO attempted to stimulate the economy through boosting the petroleum industry, Sheinbaum wants to transition away from fossil fuels and toward nationally subsidized renewable energy.
Morena Wins Big in 2024
More troubling than Sheinbaum’s 32-point victory over more business-friendly candidate, Xóchitl Gálvez, is the vast gains made in this general election by the Morena party as a whole. Mexico’s election results are now in, and it appears the country has roundly endorsed AMLO’s left-leaning programs and party.
“I had ruled out the possibility that Morena would have a blank check to do whatever they wanted. But that’s what we’re seeing now.” -Roberta Lajous, Mexican diplomat
Having achieved this supermajority in Congress, Morena will likely turn to pushing through Constitutional reforms that had been stalled in Congress due to lacking support. These are systemic and institutional changes that many believe to be anti-democratic, anti-business, and anti-free market. Some changes clearly shift power more to the executive, like making Supreme Court justices popularly elected, making elections supervisors elected, reducing the number of legislators in Congress, and eliminating many independent regulators and transferring their function to federal agencies.
While Sheinbaum is considered less of an idealist than the current president and more of a mainstream liberal, she has still widely praised most of these policies on the campaign trail. It remains to be seen if she will follow through in enacting these policies upon taking office or prioritize her more mainstream version of AMLO’s agenda.
However, the new Congress will be seated a full month before AMLO’s term ends, and there is always the possibility he could pass many of these items before leaving office. He will have a supermajority in the lower house and almost a supermajority in the upper house, potentially allowing for rapid action in Congress.
How Mexico’s 2024 Election Will Impact US Relations
Mexico’s 2024 general election was already viewed as a potentially important one for US trade relations. Both nations are members of the USMCA trade agreement, and Mexico is top trading partner for the US. Claudia Sheinbaum is a fluent English speaker and may be comfortable with international negotiations.
She will have to work through several sticky issues with the US president, who is also up for election this year. If Donald Trump is elected, the border issue, in particular will be a potential conflict. While President Obrador managed to forge a working relationship with President Trump, it remains to be seen if Sheinbaum will inherit this. If Biden is reelected, the two may find common ground, as Biden’s border policy has been less aggressive.
Mexico’s election results show the country has given President Sheinbaum a mandate to continue Obrador’s policies in many areas, including how the federal government allows foreign entities like the US CIA and DEA to work on Mexican soil for counter-cartel and drug war-related issues. Fentanyl and cartel-linked violence remain a problem between the two countries. But AMLO restricted the abilities of US agencies to work on them within Mexican borders, and Sheinbaum will likely be called upon to reconsider this.
These and many other issues will rise to the surface over the coming months and years. It is likely that Mexico is about to pass sweeping Constitutional changes in many areas. Mexico’s election results showed the country was clearly in favor of them. But these changes may not be as drastic under Sheinbaum’s administration as had been proposed under Obrador. Only time will tell.
